Our sub-state model uses county level data combined into regional aggregates, with selected variables from our Indiana state model (IMI) as exogenous variables. Here we present a regional breakdown based on the state’s larger metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
The basic data for our sub-state forecast come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Economic Information System (REIS). REIS data are annual, back to 1969. The most recent data, released in November 2017, were for 2016 and are on a NAICS basis. However, data prior to 2001 have not been transformed to the new system, and consequently data for 1969-2000 are still on the SIC basis. In addition to the REIS data, which cover employment and income by sector, our models include population data. For the latter we use county-level estimates from the Census Bureau through 2017, and slightly adjusted projections from the Indiana Business Research Center thereafter.
Only one MSA (Anderson) is expected to continue having negative employment growth (-0.96%). On average, the majority of the MSAs are expected to have weaker growth in the forecast period than during the 2012-2016 time period. The strongest MSAs for employment growth are expected to be the Indianapolis, Lafayette, Louisville, Bloomington, and Evansville MSAs. Each of these five MSAs has forecasted growth above the state annual average of 1.43 percent.
Income growth is forecasted in all regions with the top five MSAs being Indianapolis, Columbus, Evansville, Bloomington, and Lafayette. In total, 5 of the 14 MSAs are expected to experience greater income growth than the state average of 4.29 percent.